Research project IM/RT/23/RESIST (Research action IM)
Recent changes in polar regions are generally portrayed in terms of changing means: the negative mass balance of ice sheets and glaciers, the decline of sea ice, or the amplified rise in near-surface air temperature. However, this view does not convey the notion that polar regions have also been the scene of a chain of extreme events in recent years. For example, Arctic summer sea ice extent, which had been steadily decreasing since 1979, reached record lows in 2007 and 2012. Similarly, Antarctic sea ice, which had been expanding slightly, has experienced record lows in all seasons since 2016, with notable summer minima in 2017, 2022 and 2023. It is unclear whether these Antarctic sea ice minima are part of natural variability or early indicators of more profound changes.
RESIST (“Recent Arctic and Antarctic sea ice lows: same causes, same impacts?”) aims to investigate the causes and impacts of extreme summer sea ice lows in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. By examining the relationships between the sea ice and its interacting agents (ocean, atmosphere, permafrost), RESIST will enhance our understanding of sea ice variability and improve future predictions. Current knowledge gaps exist due to limited observational data and coarse climate models. RESIST will close these gaps by proposing a suite of global ocean-sea ice model reconstructions run from ~50 km down to 5 km resolutions, and by analyzing large ensembles of climate model simulations. The project will also apply causal analysis methods to disentangle cause-effect relationships and will use a rare event algorithm to study extreme sea ice conditions.
The collaboration between UCLouvain and RMI, which have complementary expertise in polar research and dynamical systems theory, will be key to achieve these goals. The project outcomes will enhance Belgium's increasing presence in polar research and contribute to European and international initiatives, such as seasonal forecast system development, polar observing systems, climate research programs, and large-scale collaborative projects.
