Research project AG/EE/050 (Research action AG)
Project description
This project concerns two types of databank:
- databank on intermediate consumption and on production by Belgian agro-industrial companies (data for 1995; future data for 2000);
- databanks monitoring the health of farm livestock across Belgium (SANITEL, administered by the Central Association for Animal Health) and Europe (ANIMO).
In the case of the agro-industrial databank, support is aimed at monitoring the new NIS survey of company structures, the continuation of methodological work, which began in the course of the previous project with a view to exploitation of new data, and the integration of results within CEA’s macro-economic data bank.
In the case of the animal health monitoring databases, the project will use these to develop a database on cattle herds in Belgium, which will allow a statistical and economic analysis of the beef sector, and to finalise a dynamic demographic model with a view to establishing more reliable forecasts on indigenous beef and veal production.
Development to be implemented by the scientific team
- Monitoring, on behalf of the agro-industrial sector, of the NIS’s five-year survey of inflows of raw materials in companies;
- Application to new data of methodology for the establishment of inflow and outflow tables and the calculation of technical processing coefficients; validation of this methodology (in particular by cross-referencing results obtained with empirical data);
- Development of the methodology for direct and indirect calculation of the content (in value and quantity terms) of agricultural products in finished products with a view to improving supply balances;
- Incorporation of tables produced within the CAE database (open for public consultation);
- Participation in the activities of the Eurostat "agro-industrial statistics" working group;
- Creation of a database on cattle herds in Belgium based on the SANITEL and ANIMO systems;
- Exploitation of these data by establishing a (dynamic) demographic model capable of refining and speeding up raw forecasts for indigenous beef and veal production. Within the project’s scheduled duration, only the opening phase of the model will be developed;
- Establishment of a list of database corrective actions and its submission to SANITEL administrators as well as establishment of recommendations for, on the one hand, improving information gathering and, on the other hand, making the database more conducive to statistical exploitation.
End product expected from the scientific team
- An updated agro-industrial database (year 2000), which is reliable and empirically tested, containing:
- inflows of raw materials per branch of business, by volume and by quantity;
- supplies of food products, per branch of business, by volume and by quantity;
- for each product category, technical processing coefficients, i.e. the content (quantity and value) of each product, differentiating between both direct and indirect content as far as the content of agricultural materials is concerned;
- assorted ratios characterising the various branches of business (value of purchases/value of supplies, supplies/turnover, value added per person, etc.).
- a methodology document concerning the various applications of the inflow-outflow tables;
- a database on cattle herds in Belgium, developed on the basis of the SANITEL and ANIMO systems, from which it will be possible to build up a dynamic demographic model that will allow the establishment of more reliable, "real-time" forecasts for Belgian beef and veal production.;
- recommendations to ACSA for improving the SANITEL system.
Valorisation of the result
These two business sectors may be fully integrated within the present activities of the Centre and represent a direct extension of the latter:
- database stockpiling and exploitation of the results from the new survey represent the culmination of methodological work that began in June 2000 and NIS support efforts;
- the new database and the ‘inflow’, ‘outflow’ and ‘technical processing coefficient’ tables will constitute Belgium’s main contribution to the Eurostat working group on agro-industrial statistics;
- exploitation of SANITEL data on cattle herds comes chiefly in response to the Centre’s concern to improve, on the one hand, the quality of the raw data forecasting indigenous meat production transmitted to the European Commission and, on the other hand, the very workings of the SANITEL system. This work falls within the scope of efforts conducted by the Centre that involve models for pigmeat production forecasts built around SANITEL data.
Direct valorisation for scientific circles and the general public:
- the new agro-industrial database and results from methodology applications will form an integral part of the Centre’s macro-economic database. In the short term, this is set to be made accessible through IT channels;
- a methodology document will be published on the applications of technical processing coefficients in the agro-industry.
Institution
Centre for Agricultural Economics (CEA), a scientific body within the Ministry for Small Businesses, Traders and Agriculture.
