Research project AS/DD/01C (Research action AS)
1. General context
In the framework of the Kyoto Protocol (Framework Convention on Climate Change – United Nations), Belgium has committed itself to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5% between 1990 and 2008-2012 (gases concerned : CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6). Besides, in the framework of various protocols to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Atmospheric Pollution (CLRTAP) of the United Nations (Economic Commission for Europe), our country has committed itself to reduce amongst others its emissions of ozone precursors NOx and VOCs . The negotiation and the implementation of these agreements require to have available forecasting analyses for these emissions as well as a techno-economic evaluation of the various emission reduction options.
2. Description and objectives of the project
The objective of this project is twofold :
- pursue the development of the multi-pollutant model EPM (Emissions Projection Model), constructed by ECONOTEC in the framework of previous studies, in particular through an in-depth revision of the software organisation of the data and through a common approach for the entire set of pollutants considered (CO2, NOx, VOCs, CH4, N2O and CO);
- apply the model for the construction of emission projection scenarios.
3. Expected products and results
The emission forecasting analysis of the 6 pollutants covered by the project (CO2, NOx, VOCs, CH4, N2O, CO) at the 2010-2015 horizon comprises, for each of these pollutants, the construction of a reference scenario and an emission reduction scenario, as well as the evaluation of the costs associated with various emission reduction objectives.
Such information :
- has a decision aid function when international emission reduction scenarios are being negotiated (as has been the case in 1999 for the NOx and VOC emissions in the framework of the preparation of a new CLRTAP protocol) ;
- allow a balance to be struck between sectors in view of achieving an overall emission reduction objective;
- allow to feed the national communications on sustainable development (as has been the case for the second national communication of the Framework Convention on Climate Change).
4. Potential users
The main potential users are the persons responsible for the environmental policy and the energy policy (as far as CO2 emissions are concerned).
Methodology
The emission projections are carried out using a bottom-up approach, based on a detailed representation of the characteristics of the emission sources. The model covers the entire set of emission sectors (industry, residential and tertiary, transport).
The emissions are generally calculated as the product of an activity variable and an emission factor, given an in-depth disaggregation by sector, sub-sector etc.
Such a model requires the collection, analysis and treatment of a large number of data.
The large amount of data to be treated and the aim of maintaining a consistency between the data and hypotheses used for the various pollutants, sectors and scenarios has required an in-depth analysis of the software organisation of the model.
This revision of the model has mainly consisted in adopting a database structure, with a clear separation between data and calculations.
The application of such a model must allow to evaluate, by sector and by energy carrier :
- the evolution of emissions in a reference (business as usual) scenario, corresponding to an unchanged policy ;
- the minimum cost emission reduction cost curves (marginal cost, total cost);
- an "emission reduction scenario", corresponding to the implementation of all emission reduction measures below a given ceiling for the marginal reduction cost (in EURO/tonne).
Application du modèle EPM au développement de scénarios d'émissions de CO2 à l'horizon 2010 pour la Belgique: rapport d'avancement, ECONOTEC
Bruxelles: SSTC, 2001 (SP0729)
[To download]
[Exhausted]
Modèle EPM: Analyse prévisionnelle des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en Belgique en 2010 : rapport final
Bruxelles : SSTC, 2002 (SP1091)
[To download]
[To order]
Modèle EPM: Analyse prévisionnelle des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en Belgique en 2010 : résumé exécutif
Bruxelles : SSTC, 2002 (SP1092)
[To download]
EPM Model: Emission projection of greenhouse gases in Belgium in 2010 : executive summary
Brussels : OSTC, 2002 (SP1093)
[To download]
