Research project CG/DD1/241 (Research action CG)
Context
Following the Rio Convention on climate change (1992), Belgium is participating in international negotiations on prevention of the greenhouse effect. This participation raises, inter alia, the following two questions:
- What are the objectives that Belgium can commit to for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 as far as emissions of both CO2 as well as other greenhouse gases are concerned?
- To what extent should these objectives be pursued according to the principles of burden sharing and joint implementation ?
The project
The aim of the project is to answer these two questions by establishing a research network known as CLIMNEG, which will bring together three academic research institutions in Belgium (CORE-UCL, ASTR-UCL and CES-KUL) and one Federal Government department (the ‘Federal Planning Bureau’). The network is devoted to the interdisciplinary analysis of decision-making on matters relating to climate change. The common scientific language is that of mathematical modelling: modelling of physical phenomena, modelling of economic relationships, econometric modelling.
- With the help of an economic and climatic model, researchers are aiming to examine the policies that would best meet three criteria: world optimality, interregional and inter-temporal equity, and strategic stability (in the sense of the acceptability of the treaties that will implement these policies ).
- The contents of these policies are three-fold: 1) the commitments to which Belgium may subscribe in the medium and long terms, 2) burden sharing under these policies, and 3) analyses of actions to be conducted, perhaps jointly, by several countries (joint implementation).
- The determination of those instruments best suited to implementing these policies also forms part of this research.
- Having observed how often the interface is overlooked between the results of this type of research and the expectations and needs of high-ranking officials actively involved in the actual negotiations, the project includes a chapter that explicitly addresses the practice of climate negotiations. The research work involved here will be carried out within the department concerned while keeping in constant, direct touch with the evolution of work carried out by university teams.
The partners
The working packages for the various teams are as follows :
- CORE-UCL : development of the economic component made up of an economic/climate model, characterisation of scenarios for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in terms of three alternative criteria (optimality, equity, strategic stability), analysis of burden sharing and of Joint Implementation.
- ASTR-UCL : development of the climatic component by making allowance for transfer functions corresponding to the best state of the art in this matter, and evaluation of the effects on overall change of the various economic scenarios.
- CES-KUL : development of an econometric model for estimating abatement and damage cost functions at the world, European and Belgian levels using general equilibrium models that take account of (and include) international trade flows. Use of the MARKAL model for estimating cost functions in the case of Belgium.
- BFP : contrasting the above-mentioned deliberations with the practice of international negotiations on climate change through the study of (i) international co-ordination in the implementation of instruments, and (ii) decision-making instruments in Belgium and abroad concerning prevention of the greenhouse effect.
Expected results
The purpose is to formulate an economic/climate model allowing one to define, characterise and compute greenhouse gas abatement policies at the world, European and Belgian levels. This model will be designed to help with:
- determination of emission abatement objectives;
- determination of international burden sharing schemes, and their implementation by means of suitable policy instruments;
- analysis of joint activities and determination of appropriate instruments and measures to this end;
- contrasting results from the above with the past, present and future practices of Belgian negotiators in the current international negotiations.
Scientific co-operation
In parallel with the CLIMNEG network (OSTC contract CG/DD/241-244), co-operation is ongoing with the ‘Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei’ (FEEM), the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the ‘Groupement de Recherche en Economie Quantitative d’Aix-Marseille’ (GREQAM), the University of California in Santa Barbara, the Indian Statistical Institute, the ‘CentER’ at Tilburg, and the BEIJER Institute of Ecological Economics in Stockholm.
Changements climatiques, négociations internationales et stratégies de la Belgique (Réseau CLIMNEG): résumé exécutif
Bruxelles: SSTC, 2001 (SP1004)
[To download]
Climate Change, International Negotiations and Belgian Strategies (CLIMNEG project): executive summary
Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP1005)
[To download]
Changements climatiques, négociations internationales et stratégies de la Belgique (réseau CLIMNEG): rapport final
Tulkens, Henry Bruxelles: SSTC, 2001 (SP0986)
[To download]
[Exhausted]
